84% — Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2026
Leader: Above $4.50 at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 20 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 09:34:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contracts markets assesses whether NVIDIA's B200 accelerator will trade at an average monthly price above $4.50 in August 2026, currently priced at 65% probability. The B200, NVIDIA's latest flagship compute chip, represents a significant upgrade to their GPU lineup, and its pricing trajectory reflects broader dynamics in AI accelerator demand and supply constraints. Market participants are pricing in a moderately high likelihood of above-$4.50 pricing for August, which sits between the more heavily-trafficked July threshold ($4.00 at 66% on Kalshi) and longer-dated expectations for higher prices. The main factors influencing this estimate are current spot-market pricing in June 2026, near-term supply-demand balance as production ramps, and whether competitive pressure from alternative accelerators emerges. Resolution depends on reported average monthly pricing data for the B200 in August; spot pricing trajectories through July will provide early signals about the August outcome.

Key factors:
- Current spot pricing for B200 in June 2026 and trend momentum into July—prices near or above $4.50 already suggest higher probability; sustained pricing below $4.00 would lower it
- Production volume and allocation constraints throughout Q3 2026—tight supply typically supports higher marginal pricing; expanded inventory could exert downward pressure
- Competitive GPU launch activity between July and August, particularly from AMD or other vendors, could disrupt B200's pricing premium
- Data center procurement patterns and customer inventory levels—heavy demand with tight budgets supports price maintenance; demand weakness or bulk contract deals at discounts could lower average pricing
- NVIDIA's official list pricing strategy and any announced price adjustments for the B200 during the June-August window

Contracts:
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in June 2026?: Above $4.50 — 84¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 0%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.00 in August 2026?: Above $4.00 — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2026?: Above $4.50 — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.50 in January 2027?: Above $5.50 — 37¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $5.00 in August 2026?: Above $5.00 — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in March 2027?: Above $6.00 — 33¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in April 2027?: Above $6.00 — 33¢ Kalshi $911 (weight 8%)
- Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $6.00 in February 2027?: Above $6.00 — 32¢ Kalshi $515 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T09:20:17.725Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/b200ms
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20monthly%20average%20compute%20price%20of%20NVIDIA's%20B200%20be%20above%20%244.50%20in%20August%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev