97% — Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 by Jun 30
Leader: Above $3.67 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 15 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-15 18:26:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects traders' assessment that Blackwell B200 GPU compute pricing will remain above $4.07 per hour through June 30th, 2026. The 97% probability on the next-tier price point ($3.27) versus lower probabilities for higher thresholds ($4.47 at 76%, $3.87 at 93%) suggests traders expect modest price stability or slight increases rather than sharp movement. Current pricing depends on supply-demand dynamics for enterprise AI compute, competition from alternative providers, and customer demand for B200 capacity. The main uncertainty centers on whether bulk pricing discounts or overcapacity will emerge before month-end, or conversely whether constrained supply sustains higher rates. The closest catalyst is observed pricing data from major cloud providers over the remaining month, which will either validate current estimates or force repricing if actual rates diverge materially from current thresholds.

Key factors:
- Current B200 hourly pricing across major providers relative to the $4.07 threshold, with observed rates determining resolution
- Enterprise demand trends for Blackwell compute through June, including whether adoption accelerates or plateaus
- Competitive pricing actions from alternative GPU providers that might pressure B200 rates downward
- Supply constraints or utilization rates that could support higher pricing if capacity remains limited
- Any announced pricing changes from major cloud platforms before June 30th deadline

Contracts:
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 by Jun 30?: Above $4.07 — 97¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.67 by Jun 30?: Above $3.67 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.87 by Jun 30?: Above $3.87 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.27 by Jun 30?: Above $4.27 — 93¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 1%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.47 by Jun 30?: Above $4.47 — 80¢ Kalshi $135 (weight 4%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.67 by Jun 30?: Above $4.67 — 70¢ Kalshi $153 (weight 4%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.87 by Jun 30?: Above $4.87 — 66¢ Kalshi $206 (weight 6%)
- Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.47 by Jun 30?: Above $5.47 — 54¢ Kalshi $510 (weight 14%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-15T18:20:50.699Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/b200q
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20B200%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%244.07%20by%20Jun%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev