92% — Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03
Leader: Above $3.00 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 10:40:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that NVIDIA's B200 GPU will cost more than $3 per hour of compute time on July 3, 2026. The 92% probability reflects strong market confidence in pricing above this threshold, though the sharp decline across higher price points ($3.50, $4.00, $5.00) suggests substantial uncertainty about the upper range. B200 pricing depends on NVIDIA's official rate announcements, cloud provider markups, and competitive pressures from alternative accelerators. The resolution hinges on verified pricing data from major cloud platforms (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) at the specified time. Traders should note the wide gap between near-term confidence (92% above $3) and lower expectations for premium pricing (17% above $5), indicating disagreement about market conditions and competitive dynamics in the compute market over the next two weeks.

Key factors:
- Official B200 pricing announcements or leaked rates from NVIDIA between now and July 3
- Cloud provider pricing for B200 compute, which typically reflects base costs plus markup and may vary across AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure
- Competitive pricing pressure from alternative high-performance GPUs (H100, H200, A100) and other accelerators available on the market
- Historical pattern of NVIDIA GPU compute pricing relative to base hardware cost and demand elasticity
- Real-time availability and demand signals that could push cloud providers to adjust B200 pricing upward or downward

Contracts:
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $3.00 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $3.00 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $3.00 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $3.50 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $3.50 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $3.50 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $4.00 — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $4.00 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T10:20:19.845Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/b200ws
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20NVIDIA%20B200%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%243%20at%204%20PM%20ET%20on%20Jul%2003
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev