94% — Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 140 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 120 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 9 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:18:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates whether Boeing will deliver more than 140 commercial aircraft in the second quarter of 2026. At 51%, the market views this as roughly a coin flip. Boeing's delivery rate depends primarily on production capacity constraints and supply-chain resilience following pandemic disruptions, as well as regulatory approval processes for aircraft models like the 737 MAX. The key resolution point occurs at the end of Q2 2026 (June 30), when Boeing reports official quarterly delivery figures. Movement in this probability before then will likely track Boeing earnings calls, FAA certification announcements, and any publicly disclosed production updates that signal acceleration or delays in their manufacturing schedule.

Key factors:
- Boeing's 737 MAX production rate has historically ranged 30-50 aircraft per month; reaching 140+ deliveries in Q2 requires sustained output above historical post-2020 averages
- Supply chain delays for engines and components remain a documented constraint; any major supplier disruptions or geographic geopolitical events could impact quarterly delivery targets
- FAA and international regulatory approvals for specific aircraft variants affect which models can be delivered; certification delays directly reduce achievable quarterly volumes
- Boeing's actual Q2 2026 delivery figures will be reported in their earnings release typically in late July 2026, providing definitive resolution
- Current order backlog and customer delivery schedules are publicly available; tracking cancellations or deferrals through May-June 2026 provides leading indicators of likely Q2 outcomes

Contracts:
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 120 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 120 — 94¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 44%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report above 155 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 155 — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 160 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 160 — 26¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 48%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report above 175 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 175 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report above 165 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 165 — 8¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 8%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report above 180 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 180 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report above 161 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 161 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report above 162 commercial deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 162 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.243Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ba
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Boeing%20Company%20(The)%20report%20Above%20140%20commercial%20deliveries%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev