91% — Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 700 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
Leader: Above 560 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether Boeing will deliver more than 700 commercial aircraft in 2026. The market currently assigns 93% probability to Boeing exceeding 560 deliveries, but only 5% probability to exceeding 700, reflecting steep uncertainty about higher production levels. Boeing's delivery trajectory depends on manufacturing capacity recovery following recent quality and safety scrutiny, supply chain constraints, and workforce availability. The company has stated targets around 600+ deliveries, making 700+ a significant stretch. Resolution will occur when Boeing reports full-year 2026 delivery figures, typically in January 2027. Near-term catalysts include quarterly earnings reports and any production rate guidance updates throughout 2026.

Key factors:
- Boeing's stated 2026 production guidance and any formal updates to delivery rate targets
- Supply chain capacity and component availability constraints that limit assembly throughput
- FAA certification and quality inspection timelines affecting aircraft release for delivery
- Actual year-to-date deliveries through Q3 2026 as a predictor of full-year potential
- Customer acceptance rates and deferrals, which influence whether built aircraft are formally delivered

Contracts:
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 560 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 560 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 600 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 600 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 580 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 580 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 620 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 620 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 640 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 640 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 660 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 660 — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 680 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 680 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 700 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 700 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.655Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/baa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Boeing%20Company%20(The)%20report%20Above%20700%20commercial%20airplane%20deliveries%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev