3% — Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:44:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical waterway between Yemen and Djibouti through which roughly 12% of global maritime trade passes—becomes effectively closed to normal shipping operations by a specified date. The strait has experienced periodic disruptions from Houthi attacks on vessels since 2023, but remains functionally open with reduced traffic and increased insurance costs. The current 3% probability reflects the view that a complete or near-complete closure is unlikely in the near term, though it could rise if attacks intensify significantly, international naval presence decreases, or conflict escalates in the region. Key catalysts include changes in Houthi military capability, shifts in international enforcement efforts, or formal announcements from major shipping operators about route abandonment. Resolution would depend on whether independent shipping data and port records show traffic volumes falling below a defined threshold.

Key factors:
- Houthi attack frequency and capability—current attacks have not prevented transits but increased them; a sustained spike in hits or successful attacks on larger vessels could shift market expectations
- International naval presence and coordination—multiple countries maintain anti-piracy and anti-drone operations; withdrawal or reduced patrols would remove a key constraint on closure
- Shipping industry rerouting—companies have diverted around the Cape of Good Hope when risk premiums spike; formal abandonment by major carriers would signal market belief in closure risk
- Formal announcements from regional authorities or major port operators regarding traffic suspension or emergency protocols
- Insurance rates and transit cost premiums—these provide real-time market signals of perceived closure risk, though high premiums alone do not indicate effective closure

Contracts:
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: June 22 — 3¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bab-elmandeb-strait-effectively-closed
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev