39% — Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027 Leader: D-House, D-Senate at 39% · Kalshi 39% · 3 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:45 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This 31% probability represents the chance that Democrats control the House while Republicans control the Senate in February 2027, following the 2026 midterm elections. The current level reflects relatively weak Democratic positioning in Senate races, where they defend numerous seats in competitive states, while House control remains more contested. Related market contracts show Republicans favored for Senate (19¢ for R-R split) and Democrats slightly ahead for holding both chambers (44¢ for D-D), suggesting a divided government is viewed as plausible but less likely than partisan sweeps. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty is the November 2026 midterm election, which will determine actual seat distributions. Before then, polling trends, candidate recruitment, and spending patterns in competitive districts and states will gradually shift probabilities as clearer electoral dynamics emerge. Key factors: - The 36¢ contract for D-House/R-Senate is currently the second-lowest probability among split-control scenarios, suggesting markets view this outcome as less likely than Republicans holding both chambers (19¢) or Democrats holding both (44¢) - Senate Democrats defend significantly more seats than Republicans in 2026, creating structural disadvantage in gaining majority while Republicans hold seats in competitive terrain - House control appears more volatile in market pricing relative to Senate, with Democratic seat-holding contracts ranging from 43¢ to 76¢ depending on threshold, indicating genuine uncertainty about chamber outcomes - The November 5, 2026 midterm election will be the primary data point resolving this question, with campaign performance metrics and polling through October providing leading indicators - Historical patterns show split-control outcomes relatively uncommon in midterms compared to unified sweeps, which may suppress this probability relative to pure probabilistic scenarios Contracts: - Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?: D-House, D-Senate — 39¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 31%) - Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: D-House, R-Senate — 37¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%) - Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: R-House, R-Senate — 21¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 55%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.259Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/balancepowercombo Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20House%20Control%20be%20Democratic%20AND%20Senate%20Control%20be%20Republican%20for%20Feb%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev