55% — Bank of Russia decision in April
Kalshi 6% · Polymarket 64% · 7 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:30:42 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 58pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Bank of Japan Decision in June?: 25 bps increase — 97¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 48%)
- Bank of Canada decision in June?: No change — 88¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 45%)
- Bank of Brazil Decision in June?: No Change — 62¢ Polymarket $353 (weight 3%)
- Bank of Israel Decision in July?: No Change — 36¢ Polymarket $239 (weight 2%)
- Bank of Russia decision in June?: Decrease — 89¢ Polymarket $122 (weight 1%)
- Bank of Russia decision in June?: No Change — 9¢ Polymarket $22 (weight 0%)
- Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?: Maintain current rate — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.468Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bank-of-russia-decision-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bank%20of%20Russia%20decision%20in%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev