93% — How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year
Leader: Above 550 at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is assessing whether the U.S. will experience at least 550 corporate bankruptcies during 2026, with a 93% probability suggesting traders view this as highly likely. Corporate bankruptcy rates typically fluctuate with economic conditions, credit availability, and business sentiment. The current high probability reflects expectations of moderate-to-elevated distress levels, potentially influenced by recent interest rate environment, inflation trends, and sector-specific pressures. Resolution depends on actual bankruptcy filings tallied throughout 2026, with preliminary data typically available quarterly and final figures compiled by year-end. Key factors that could shift this probability include major changes in monetary policy, unexpected economic contraction or expansion, significant sector disruptions, or shifts in business credit conditions.

Key factors:
- Historical U.S. corporate bankruptcy rates typically range from 400-700 filings annually; current market pricing reflects confidence this threshold will be exceeded
- Federal Reserve policy trajectory and prevailing interest rates directly influence refinancing ability and default risk for leveraged firms
- Labor market health, measured by initial jobless claims and employment trends, serves as a leading indicator for broader economic stress and insolvency risk
- Specific sector vulnerabilities—such as commercial real estate, retail, or regional financial institutions—could accelerate bankruptcies if conditions deteriorate sharply
- Q2-Q4 2026 earnings reports and credit market stress indicators will provide concrete data points for market repricing as the year progresses

Contracts:
- How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 550 — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 600 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 650 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 750 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 800 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year?: Above 850 — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bankruptcy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20corporate%20bankruptcies%20will%20there%20be%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev