81% — Will Mandela Barnes endorse David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026
Leader: No one at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 3 contracts · $800 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that Wisconsin's former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will endorse David Crowley specifically in the 2026 gubernatorial race by August 11, 2026. Currently priced at 16%, it reflects market sentiment that Barnes is more likely to remain neutral or endorse someone else. The probability is shaped by Barnes' public positioning within Wisconsin Democratic politics, his relationship to Crowley relative to other candidates like Francesca Hong, and his historical tendency to make or withhold endorsements. The dominant outcome (77%) suggests market participants expect no Crowley endorsement before the August 11 deadline. The critical catalyst is any public statement or campaign event by Barnes before that date, particularly activities around the state Democratic convention or primary season.

Key factors:
- Barnes' prior public statements or social media regarding Crowley, Hong, or other 2026 Democratic gubernatorial candidates
- Timing of major campaign events or endorsement announcements by Democratic candidates before August 11
- Historical pattern of when and to whom Barnes typically grants political endorsements
- Whether Barnes holds an official party position that might constrain or enable early endorsements
- Distance between August 11 and Wisconsin's primary election date, and whether endorsements typically cluster around specific dates

Contracts:
- Will Mandela Barnes endorse No one in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026?: No one — 81¢ Kalshi $722 (weight 90%)
- Will Mandela Barnes endorse David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026?: David Crowley — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mandela Barnes endorse Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026?: Francesca Hong — 6¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 10%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-08T19:20:51.624Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/barnesendorse
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mandela%20Barnes%20endorse%20David%20Crowley%20in%20the%202026%20Wisconsin%20Governor%20race%20before%20Aug%2011%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev