38% — Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics Kalshi 38% · 20 contracts · $69 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 04:33:22 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Donovan Mitchell will make the USA Men's Basketball roster for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. At 48%, the market sees him as roughly a coin-flip candidate—competitive but not assured of selection. Mitchell's case depends primarily on his performance over the next two years and how the pool of available guards shapes up. Younger players like Ausar Thompson (9¢) and AJ Dybantsa (11¢) are considered much longer shots, while established stars like Anthony Edwards (91¢) are heavily favored. Mitchell's selection probability will likely shift based on his injury history, statistical performance relative to other guards, and Team USA's roster construction strategy. The 2028 selection process will occur in spring 2028, roughly 22 months away, allowing substantial time for player development and circumstances to change. Key factors: - Mitchell's availability and health status from 2026-2028, as previous injuries have periodically affected his participation and performance - His scoring efficiency and overall statistical production relative to competing guards during the 2026-27 and 2027-28 NBA seasons - The broader depth and quality of USA Men's Basketball guards available in 2028, which affects relative roster demand - Team USA's preferred roster composition and whether they prioritize experienced veterans or younger emerging talent - Coaching staff preferences and selection criteria established by the national team program for 2028 Contracts: - Will Tyrese Haliburton be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Tyrese Haliburton — 60¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 68%) - Will Jalen Brunson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Jalen Brunson — 34¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 32%) - Will Austin Reaves be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Austin Reaves — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Joel Embiid be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Joel Embiid — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Donovan Mitchell — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Anthony Davis be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Anthony Davis — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will AJ Dybantsa be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: AJ Dybantsa — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Anthony Edwards be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Anthony Edwards — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T04:20:48.769Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bballteamusa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donovan%20Mitchell%20be%20selected%20to%20the%20USA%20Men's%20Basketball%20team%20for%20the%202028%20Summer%20Olympics Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev