31% — Will Ben make at least 12 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Kalshi 31% · 6 contracts · $29K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Ben will successfully make at least 12 three-pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout. The 10% probability reflects significant skepticism about Ben reaching this threshold. The low probability appears driven by the demanding nature of the target—12 successful three-pointers is a high bar in competitive shootout conditions—and likely reflects either Ben's historical performance in such events or expectations based on participant skill levels. The contract will resolve once the BobHQ 3PT Shootout takes place and official results are recorded, at which point Ben's actual three-point total will determine the outcome. Currently, comparable shootout targets for other participants (Binny at 11+, Bob at 11+, Fat Perez at 11+) trade slightly higher, suggesting Ben may be viewed as less likely to reach similar performance levels. Trading volume remains modest at $24 over 24 hours.

Key factors:
- Ben's historical three-point shooting accuracy and performance in previous similar competitions
- The specific format and rules of the BobHQ 3PT Shootout (time limits, ball availability, shooting position constraints)
- Competitive context: how Ben's performance typically compares to peers like Binny, Bob, and Fat Perez in shooting competitions
- Whether 12 three-pointers represents an outlier performance or a realistic upper-range outcome for Ben
- The scheduled date and confirmed participation of all shootout competitors

Contracts:
- Will Joey make at least 6 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout?: Joey: 6+ made three pointers — 52¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 30%)
- Will Fat Perez make at least 11 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout?: Fat Perez: 11+ made three pointers — 18¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 20%)
- Will Bob make at least 11 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout?: Bob: 11+ made three pointers — 37¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 18%)
- Will Jensen make at least 5 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout?: Jensen: 5+ made three pointers — 30¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%)
- Will Ben make at least 12 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout?: Ben: 12+ made three pointers — 25¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 12%)
- Will Binny make at least 11 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout?: Binny: 11+ made three pointers — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.748Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bds3ptou
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ben%20make%20at%20least%2012%20three%20pointers%20during%20the%20BobHQ%203PT%20Shootout
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev