27% — Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC
Polymarket 34% · 3 contracts · $86 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:06:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Beijing Guoan FC will defeat Dalian Yingbo FC in their upcoming match. The 37% baseline reflects modest confidence in a Beijing Guoan victory, though notable disagreement exists between prediction venues—Polymarket traders assess the probability 9 percentage points higher than Kalshi participants. The probability will shift based on team form leading into the match, injury status of key players, and head-to-head historical performance. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Current contract activity shows relatively balanced betting interest between a Dalian Yingbo win and a draw outcome, both priced near 23¢, while over/under markets suggest expectations for a low-scoring contest.

Key factors:
- Polymarket prices Beijing Guoan at 39% average versus 30% on Kalshi, indicating genuine analytical disagreement rather than fringe positions
- Draw probability is priced identically to Dalian Yingbo victory (23¢), suggesting markets view all three outcomes as roughly competitive
- Over/under markets clustered at 1.5 (82¢), 2.5 (61¢), and 3.5 (41¢) indicate strong expectation of low-scoring play
- Trading volume concentrated in win/draw/loss contracts ($45-39 24h) while total goals markets show minimal activity ($0-8), reflecting uncertainty resolution dependency
- Beijing Guoan represents the less-favored outcome despite home-venue implications for Chinese Super League fixtures

Contracts:
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Dalian Yingbo FC — 23¢ Polymarket $45 (weight 45%)
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC) — 23¢ Polymarket $39 (weight 43%)
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Beijing Guoan FC — 57¢ Polymarket $2 (weight 12%)

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Beijing%20Guoan%20FC%20vs.%20Dalian%20Yingbo%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev