12% — Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
Polymarket 12% · 1 contracts · $5K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:59:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that IR Iran will win or draw in an upcoming match against Belgium. At 12%, the market is pricing Iran as a significant underdog. The current odds reflect Belgium's higher FIFA ranking and recent performance metrics, while also accounting for Iran's home-field advantage and historical performance in competitive matches. The key uncertainty centers on team composition, recent form leading into the match, and tactical matchups on the day of play. The match result will definitively resolve this contract when the fixture is completed.

Key factors:
- Belgium's FIFA ranking and recent international match record compared to Iran's current standing
- Iran's historical performance in home fixtures versus away performance in competitive international matches
- Recent injury reports and roster availability for both teams in the weeks leading to kickoff
- Head-to-head historical record and outcomes from previous competitive matchups between the nations
- Pre-match betting odds from major sports books and their implied probability for an Iran victory or draw

Contracts:
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran — 12¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/belgium-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Belgium%20vs.%20IR%20Iran%3A%20IR%20Iran
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev