17% — Will Die Linke finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election Kalshi 17% · 5 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:16 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance that Die Linke finishes in fourth place in the 2026 Berlin state election. Die Linke currently faces structural challenges in Berlin politics: the party has experienced declining support in recent years and competes for left-wing voters alongside the Greens and SPD. The 5% probability suggests markets view a fourth-place finish as unlikely but plausible. Movement in this probability would primarily depend on polling trends in the months leading to the election and whether Die Linke can stabilize or regain voter support. The Berlin state election scheduled for 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome, determining the actual final rankings of all participating parties. Key factors: - Die Linke's current polling position relative to SPD, Greens, and other parties in recent Berlin surveys - Historical vote share trends for Die Linke in Berlin elections over the past decade - Voter coalition dynamics and potential redistribution between left-wing parties (SPD, Greens, Die Linke) - Turnout patterns in Berlin elections and whether they favor or disadvantage Die Linke's base - Comparative market probabilities for other parties finishing fourth, which currently show Greens at 9¢ as the frontrunner for that position Contracts: - Will Die Linke finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: Die Linke — 4¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 93%) - Will Grüne finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: Grüne — 41¢ Kalshi $297 (weight 6%) - Will AfD finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: AfD — 16¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 0%) - Will SPD finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: SPD — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will CDU finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election?: CDU — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.946Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/berlin4th Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Die%20Linke%20finish%204th%20in%20the%202026%20Berlin%20state%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev