15% — Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election
Kalshi 15% · 3 contracts · $200 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 01:00:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Elif Eralp will become Governing Mayor of Berlin following the state election, as determined by the Berlin House of Representatives. The 4% estimate suggests markets view Eralp as a long-shot candidate relative to better-positioned frontrunners like Steffen Krach and Stefan Evers, who are trading at 5 cents. Movement in this probability would depend on shifts in polling data, coalition negotiations outcomes, and party performance in the upcoming election. The main catalyst driving resolution is the Berlin state election itself, after which the House of Representatives will vote to elect the next Governing Mayor. Current low trading volume across all mayoral candidates indicates limited market activity and potentially thin liquidity for these contracts.

Key factors:
- Eralp's current contract price of 4 cents ranks her below the two frontrunners (5 cents each) and equal to Werner Graf despite different party positioning and name recognition
- Berlin state election results will determine parliamentary composition and coalition possibilities, directly affecting which candidates remain viable for the mayoralty
- Post-election coalition negotiations between parties will determine which candidates can secure sufficient votes in the House of Representatives
- Comparison to other long-shot candidates (Brinker and Graf at 3 cents) provides market consensus on her relative chances versus lower-probability alternatives
- Trading volume of $0 across all mayoral contracts suggests minimal market participation and potential price discovery issues

Contracts:
- Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?: Stefan Evers — 18¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 69%)
- Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?: Elif Eralp — 24¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 30%)
- Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?: Werner Graf — 3¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:50.005Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/berlingovmayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Elif%20Eralp%20win%20the%20election%20for%20Governing%20Mayor%20of%20Berlin%20by%20the%20Berlin%20House%20of%20Representatives%20following%20their%20state%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev