75% — Will Bernie Sanders endorse Antonio Delgado in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election before Nov 3, 2026 Leader: Charles Booker at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 83% likelihood that Bernie Sanders will endorse Antonio Delgado in New York's 2026 gubernatorial race before November 3, 2026. Sanders has a demonstrated pattern of endorsing progressive candidates in high-profile races, making such an endorsement plausible. However, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether Delgado remains Sanders' preferred candidate, potential competing endorsements, or shifts in the race dynamics. The single largest catalyst is the Democratic primary outcome and whether Delgado emerges as the frontrunner, since Sanders typically endorses once party frontrunners become clear. The endorsement window closes November 3, 2026, making timing a critical factor. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market conviction relative to the headline probability. Key factors: - Sanders endorsed James Talarico for Texas Senate at 83% probability, indicating the market is pricing multiple concurrent Sanders endorsement outcomes as partially overlapping rather than mutually exclusive - Delgado's status as likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee or frontrunner status would substantially increase endorsement likelihood, while a primary loss or withdrawal would decrease it - Sanders' historical endorsement pattern shows he typically waits for clearer frontrunner emergence rather than endorsing early, affecting the timing within the Nov 3 deadline - Zero trading volume across most related contracts suggests low market liquidity and potentially thin conviction behind the 83% figure - The presence of competing high-probability Sanders endorsements (Texas at 83%, Illinois at 79%) may indicate market modeling assumes Sanders endorses multiple candidates rather than just one Contracts: - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Charles Booker in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky before Nov 3, 2026?: Charles Booker — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas before Nov 3, 2026?: James Talarico — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral race before Nov 3, 2026?: Nithya Raman — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race before Nov 3, 2026?: Gina Hinojosa — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Dan Osborn in the 2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska before Nov 3, 2026?: Dan Osborn — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Juliana Stratton in the 2026 United States Senate election in Illinois before Nov 3, 2026?: Juliana Stratton — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Josh Turek in Iowa Senate Race before Nov 3, 2026?: Josh Turek — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will Bernie Sanders endorse Mary Peltola in the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska before Nov 3, 2026?: Mary Peltola — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:51.291Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bernieendorse Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bernie%20Sanders%20endorse%20Antonio%20Delgado%20in%20the%202026%20New%20York%20gubernatorial%20election%20before%20Nov%203%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev