27% — Which company has the best AI model? Kalshi 27% · 9 contracts · $48K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-07 14:13:42 UTC Contracts: - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: ChatGPT — 25¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 54%) - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Grok — 7¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 23%) - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Claude — 58¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 11%) - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Gemini — 6¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 8%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 21¢ Kalshi $435 (weight 1%) - Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles D — 45¢ Kalshi $415 (weight 1%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 66¢ Kalshi $347 (weight 1%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 6¢ Kalshi $335 (weight 1%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-07T13:20:51.769Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/best-ai-model-2026 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20AI%20model%3F Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev