31% — Which company has the best AI model?
Kalshi 27% · Polymarket 35% · 18 contracts · $78K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:01 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 8pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: Grok — 8¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 18%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic — 86¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 17%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI — 5¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 16%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google — 10¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 13%)
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: Claude — 63¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 9%)
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: ChatGPT — 13¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%)
- Best AI in Dec 2026?: Gemini — 14¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 5%)
- OpenAI IPO by...?: December 31, 2026 — 73¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 5%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.775Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/best-ai-model-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20AI%20model%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev