31% — Which company has the best AI model? Kalshi 31% · 8 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 01:15:46 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations about which AI company will have the best-performing model by December 31, 2026. The 30% price for ChatGPT contrasts with Claude's 62¢, suggesting traders believe Claude is the frontrunner based on recent benchmark performance and capability assessments. Market movements depend on concrete model releases, published benchmarks, and real-world capability demonstrations over the next five months. The resolution will likely depend on standardized evaluation metrics, head-to-head testing results, and consensus among AI researchers about which system achieves the strongest performance across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following tasks. Key factors: - Claude's market price of 62¢ versus ChatGPT's 14¢ reflects trader assessment of recent model versions and their performance on standard benchmarks through mid-2026 - New major model releases or significant capability improvements announced between July and December 2026 would directly move probabilities, as traders reassess relative performance - The resolution criteria must specify how 'best' will be measured—whether by published benchmark scores, evaluator consensus, or specific capability demonstrations - Trading volume varies substantially across contracts ($7,167 for ChatGPT versus $1,342 for Grok), suggesting liquidity disparities may amplify or dampen price movements - Historical precedent shows AI capability rankings shift rapidly when new versions release, making the December deadline potentially volatile for repricing Contracts: - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: ChatGPT — 15¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 55%) - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Claude — 63¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 27%) - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Grok — 6¢ Kalshi $724 (weight 6%) - Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Gemini — 12¢ Kalshi $624 (weight 5%) - Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles D — 58¢ Kalshi $619 (weight 5%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 59¢ Kalshi $187 (weight 2%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:49.589Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/best-ai-model-2026 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20company%20has%20the%20best%20AI%20model%3F Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev