39% — Best Chinese AI Company end of April
Polymarket 33% · Kalshi 42% · 18 contracts · $74K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 17:05:10 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 9pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Largest Company end of June?: Alphabet — 23¢ Polymarket $18K (weight 8%)
- Largest Company end of June?: NVIDIA — 72¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 7%)
- Largest Company end of December 2026?: Alphabet — 38¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 7%)
- Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA — 53¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 7%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI — 5¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 7%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic — 69¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 7%)
- Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google — 24¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 7%)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6% — 64¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%)
- ... and 10 more

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
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