5% — Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28
Kalshi 5% · 16 contracts · $32K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 00:53:42 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 7% probability that Barrett Pfeiffer will win Big Brother Season 28, based on aggregated trading data from prediction markets. At this odds level, Pfeiffer is positioned as a mid-tier contender rather than a frontrunner or long shot. The probability likely reflects his performance in early game phases, social positioning, and competition strength relative to other houseguests. Key factors driving this valuation include his demonstrated physical or strategic gameplay, jury management approach, and how he compares to higher-probability contestants like Ashley Trail (7%) and Lyric Medeiros (8%). Movement in this probability would depend on his survival in upcoming evictions, relationship dynamics with other houseguests, and shifts in fan or betting sentiment as the season progresses. The resolution of this market will depend on the finale timing and final houseguest standing.

Key factors:
- Pfeiffer's competition performance and win-loss record in physical and mental challenges will directly impact eviction survival odds
- His current position in house alliances and social relationships determine whether he remains a voting target or gains jury respect
- Trading volume of $335 in 24 hours for his contract suggests moderate but not overwhelming market interest compared to top contenders
- The 1-2 cent spread between his price (9¢) and similar contenders (Patel at 6¢, Brown at 6¢) indicates marginal differentiation in expected probability
- Upcoming eviction episodes and jury composition changes will create focal points where market probability adjusts based on new information

Contracts:
- Will Rick Devens win Big Brother Season 28?: Rick Devens — 4¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 14%)
- Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother Season 28?: Drew Campbell — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 11%)
- Will Mallory Aurichio win Big Brother Season 28?: Mallory Aurichio — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%)
- Will Lyric Medeiros win Big Brother Season 28?: Lyric Medeiros — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%)
- Will Jason De Puy win Big Brother Season 28?: Jason De Puy — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%)
- Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28?: Barrett Pfeiffer — 10¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will LaTrice Verrett win Big Brother Season 28?: LaTrice Verrett — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Will Yash Patel win Big Brother Season 28?: Yash Patel — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T00:20:52.003Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bigbrother
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Barrett%20Pfeiffer%20win%20Big%20Brother%20Season%2028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev