45% — Will drop dead be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026: drop dead
Kalshi 45% · 2 contracts · $245 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:41 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether 'drop dead' will rank as the #2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of May 9, 2026. The 15% probability reflects relatively low odds, suggesting traders believe the song is unlikely to reach that specific chart position. The current probability is influenced by the song's existing chart momentum—'drop dead' already ranked as the runner-up song on May 2, 2026 (trading at 91¢), indicating it has achieved strong performance. Whether it maintains or improves that position depends on competing releases, radio play, and streaming activity over the next week. The key resolution event is the official Billboard Hot 100 release for the chart week ending May 9, 2026, which typically publishes on Tuesday. Traders are essentially betting whether 'drop dead' will hold or improve its near-top position or whether another song will overtake it for the #2 slot.

Key factors:
- 'drop dead' ranked #2 on the May 2, 2026 chart (91¢ contract suggests high confidence in this outcome)
- The song must maintain or improve position against competing releases and streaming trends in the subsequent week
- Top competing song positions remain uncertain—Elizabeth Taylor at 1¢ and other unnamed songs at low probabilities suggest no dominant replacement is priced in
- Billboard Hot 100 calculations factor streaming, radio airplay, and digital sales weighted differently, introducing measurement variability
- Official chart release for May 9 week occurs Tuesday of that week, providing definitive resolution with no appeal or revision

Contracts:
- Will Choosin' Texas be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas — 3¢ Kalshi $180 (weight 73%)
- Will I Knew It, I Knew You be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: I Knew It, I Knew You — 86¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 27%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.712Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/billboardrunnerupsong
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20drop%20dead%20be%20%232%20on%20the%20Billboard%20Hot%20100%20during%20the%20week%20of%20May%209%2C%202026%3A%20drop%20dead
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev