81% — Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 18 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-23 23:42:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract resolves to YES if Congress passes and the President signs legislation authorizing a Women's History Museum on the National Mall before year-end 2026. The 42% probability reflects modest but not negligible chances, suggesting meaningful legislative interest but substantial hurdles remain. The core drivers are current congressional appetite for cultural and historical funding initiatives, and the procedural difficulty of securing floor time and bipartisan support within a six-month window. The single biggest catalyst is the outcome of congressional scheduling decisions in July–September 2026, when leaders typically finalize their legislative calendars for the final quarter. Bills advancing through committee or receiving explicit leadership commitment would shift probabilities materially upward; conversely, competing infrastructure or appropriations priorities could displace this initiative from the agenda entirely. Key factors: - Congressional committees must vote the bill out of committee and leadership must allocate scarce floor time before January 1, 2027—fewer than 155 legislative days remain - The bill requires presidential signature; unified control of Congress and the White House increases passage likelihood compared to divided government scenarios - Museum authorization bills historically achieve lower pass rates than infrastructure or appropriations legislation, despite bipartisan cultural support - Competing legislative priorities (surface transportation reauthorization, railway safety, appropriations deadlines) compete for the same finite legislative capacity in 2026 - Recent congressional activity and committee scheduling in June–July 2026 will signal whether this proposal has serious sponsor momentum or remains aspirational Contracts: - Will legislation that conditions eligibility for Department of Defense contracts on covered contractors refraining from stock buybacks become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that bars government agencies or private entities from using ADS-B aircraft-tracking data to identify aircraft for the purpose of obtaining revenue from the aircraft owner or operator without consent become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ADS-B revenue-use restriction — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security — 25¢ Kalshi $42 (weight 1%) - Will legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period become law before Jan 1, 2027?: AI-chip export licensing — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation principally aimed at strengthening federal efforts to protect Jewish Americans from antisemitism, including through civil-rights enforcement, physical security support, threat monitoring, or online-platform transparency become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Jewish American security — 21¢ Kalshi $750 (weight 19%) - Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 38%) - Will legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules become law before Jan 1, 2027?: College sports federalization — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 42%) - Will legislation that imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification) become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Railway safety bill — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:51.126Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bills Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20authorizes%20siting%20the%20Women%E2%80%99s%20History%20Museum%20within%20the%20National%20Mall%20Reserve%20become%20law%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev