76% — Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: Housing for the 21st Century Act at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 20 contracts · $425 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This measures the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation authorizing the Women's History Museum on the National Mall before year-end 2026. The 36% probability reflects modest but uncertain support. The main drivers are whether Democratic and Republican leadership prioritize this cultural initiative amid competing legislative agendas, and whether the proposal maintains broad enough support to advance through committee and floor votes in both chambers. The critical catalyst is House and Senate activity during the remainder of 2026; any bill that clears committee and reaches a chamber floor substantially increases passage odds. Summer and fall floor schedules will largely determine whether this competes successfully against higher-priority legislation for floor time. Budget constraints and competing priorities for National Mall real estate could further limit momentum. Key factors: - No signed agreement exists yet between relevant committees and leadership as of late April 2026, reducing likelihood of rapid passage - The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (37%) and Polymarket (20%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about bill advancement or legislative appetite - Congressional floor time allocation in 2026 remains contested; cultural projects typically rank below fiscal, security, and partisan priority legislation - National Mall space availability and feasibility studies would need to show viability; delays in site planning reduce passage probability - A bill would need to clear both House and Senate and secure presidential signature within approximately 8 months, a tight timeline for non-essential legislation Contracts: - Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Housing for the 21st Century Act — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification) become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Railway safety bill — 61¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 24%) - Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act — 46¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 22%) - Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ROTOR Act — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security — 27¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 12%) - Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.935Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bills Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20authorizes%20siting%20the%20Women%E2%80%99s%20History%20Museum%20within%20the%20National%20Mall%20Reserve%20become%20law%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev