19% — Bitcoin Kalshi 18% · 94 contracts · $209K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 12:48:07 UTC Aggregates 63 related probability questions with 94 underlying contracts. Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that the U.S. Treasury will publicly announce a completed acquisition of Ethereum as an official government reserve asset by January 21, 2029. At 11%, it reflects skepticism about such a move, though Bitcoin's slightly higher 11% probability suggests some traders see crypto reserves as more plausible than the specific cryptocurrency chosen. The current low probability reflects the lack of formal government policy supporting crypto reserves, the regulatory uncertainty around digital assets, and the Treasury's historical focus on traditional reserves like gold and foreign currency. Key drivers would be legislative action mandating crypto purchases, significant geopolitical shifts favoring decentralized assets, or a major shift in administration policy. The primary catalyst would be announcements from Congress or Treasury leadership explicitly endorsing cryptocurrency as a reserve asset, though no scheduled legislative action addresses this currently. Market liquidity remains minimal across all contracts, suggesting limited trader engagement with these scenarios. Key factors: - No current U.S. legislation or official Treasury policy supports purchasing cryptocurrency as a government reserve, creating a high bar for policy change by 2029 - Bitcoin's 11% probability versus Ethereum's 7% suggests market skepticism that any single cryptocurrency asset class would be selected over others - Regulatory clarity around stablecoins and decentralized finance would likely precede any government reserve purchase decision - A change in administration, Congressional majority, or major geopolitical event (like reserve currency crisis) could shift probability upward significantly - The Treasury has not publicly discussed crypto reserves as a policy option, making forward guidance from Treasury leadership the most direct catalyst Contracts: - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 75,000 to 79,999.99 — 14¢ Kalshi $22K (weight 2%) - Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by November 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?: Before November 2026 — 10¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 2%) - Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?: Below $55,000.00 — 17¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 2%) - Will Ethereum reach above $4000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,000.00 — 20¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 2%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 105,000 to 109,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 2%) - Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?: Below $50,000.00 — 10¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 2%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 90,000 to 94,999.99 — 8¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 2%) - Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?: Before 2027 — 4¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 2%) - ... and 86 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T12:38:41.609Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bitcoin Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev