18% — Bitcoin Kalshi 17% · 78 contracts · $151K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 01:07:51 UTC Aggregates 58 related probability questions with 78 underlying contracts. Why this matters: This prediction estimates a 53% chance that Bitcoin's implied volatility index will fall below 35 by May 31, 2026—roughly five days from now. Implied volatility measures expected price swings in Bitcoin derivatives markets and typically compresses during periods of stability or expands during uncertainty. The current market pricing reflects skepticism about large volatility spikes in the near term, though roughly one-third of contracts favor outcomes above 45. The main drivers are Bitcoin's price stability heading into month-end and broader crypto market sentiment. With only days until resolution, upcoming macroeconomic data releases, regulatory announcements, or significant Bitcoin price movements could quickly shift expectations. The tight timeframe means most uncertainty has already been priced in. Key factors: - Current Bitcoin implied volatility levels and recent intraday trading ranges determine baseline expectations - Scheduled economic data or Fed-related announcements between now and May 31 could trigger volatility spikes or compression - Bitcoin spot price movement magnitude—large intraday swings would push IV higher, while consolidation supports lower readings - Options market positioning and open interest in near-term Bitcoin derivatives contracts reflect positioning that influences IV calculations - Cryptocurrency exchange outages, regulatory actions, or major news events would be primary catalysts for rapid IV changes in a 5-day window Contracts: - Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $75,000.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $44K (weight 3%) - Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Below $52,500.00 — 4¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 3%) - Will BTC trimmed mean be below $55000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Below $55,000.00 — 9¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 3%) - Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Below $57,500.00 — 26¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 3%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 60,000 to 64,999.99 — 7¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 3%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 65,000 to 69,999.99 — 10¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 3%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 90,000 to 94,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 3%) - BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?: 70,000 to 74,999.99 — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 3%) - ... and 70 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T00:38:33.166Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bitcoin Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev