77% — Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?
Kalshi 98% · 15 contracts · $1.6M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:26:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 98¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 1%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 98¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 2%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 97¢ Kalshi $24K (weight 2%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 97¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 1%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 97¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 1%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 96¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 1%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 95¢ Kalshi $54K (weight 3%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 93¢ Kalshi $77K (weight 5%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:54.304Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin-100k
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20hit%20%24100%2C000%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev