52% — Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?
Kalshi 91% · 15 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the gold close price be above 4060.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 91¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4080.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 91¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 6%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4100.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 90¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 13%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4120.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 88¢ Kalshi $372 (weight 21%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4140.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 86¢ Kalshi $173 (weight 10%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4160.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 82¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 2%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4180.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 75¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4300.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — 52¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T06:40:59.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin-100k
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20hit%20%24100%2C000%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev