44% — Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?
Kalshi 77% · Polymarket 11% · 30 contracts · $10.3M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:26:40 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 66pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 250,000 — 1¢ Polymarket $5.3M (weight 52%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $1.9M (weight 19%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 190,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $690K (weight 7%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 180,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $472K (weight 5%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $346K (weight 3%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 59¢ Kalshi $224K (weight 2%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 69¢ Kalshi $222K (weight 2%)
- Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026? — 80¢ Kalshi $219K (weight 2%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:54.310Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin-200k
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20hit%20%24200%2C000%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev