44% — Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?
Kalshi 70% · Polymarket 18% · 30 contracts · $8.7M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:16 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 52pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 250,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $5.1M (weight 58%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $1.8M (weight 20%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 190,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $591K (weight 7%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 180,000 — 2¢ Polymarket $424K (weight 5%)
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000 — 3¢ Polymarket $317K (weight 4%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? — 65¢ Kalshi $84K (weight 1%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? — 59¢ Kalshi $63K (weight 1%)
- Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? — 92¢ Kalshi $53K (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-07T06:40:59.842Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin-200k
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bitcoin%20hit%20%24200%2C000%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev