7% — Bitcoin all time high by ___
Leader: December 31, 2026 at 7% · Polymarket 7% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:08:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by the end of 2026. The 21% aggregate probability suggests traders see it as unlikely but plausible within the next eight months. Bitcoin's current price relative to its previous peak of approximately $69,000 (reached in November 2024) is the primary driver—the asset would need substantial appreciation to set a new record. Market sentiment is split: Kalshi traders price the odds at 32%, while Polymarket traders are more skeptical at 18%, indicating genuine disagreement about near-term momentum. Key factors include macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption trends. The June 30, 2026 contract is the most actively traded, suggesting that timeframe is where market uncertainty concentrates. Bitcoin's performance over the next two quarters will largely determine whether this outcome occurs.

Key factors:
- Bitcoin's price must appreciate approximately 20-30% from current levels to surpass the November 2024 all-time high of ~$69,000
- Kalshi traders assign 32% probability versus Polymarket's 18%, indicating material disagreement that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- June 30, 2026 contract trades at 3¢ with $8,412 daily volume, the most liquid Bitcoin ATH contract, concentrating uncertainty in the next 10 weeks
- Bitcoin has experienced multiple cycles of boom-bust volatility; sustained upward pressure typically requires either macro tailwinds or major adoption catalysts
- The September 30 contract trades at only 11¢, suggesting declining conviction as the year progresses, indicating markets price lower odds for longer-dated milestones

Contracts:
- Bitcoin all time high by ___?: December 31, 2026 — 7¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 57%)
- Bitcoin all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 43%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bitcoin-all-time-high
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bitcoin%20all%20time%20high%20by%20___
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev