80% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 4 contracts · $14 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 03:13:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Senate Judiciary Committee will vote to report Todd Blanche's nomination for U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before August 1, 2026. At 21% for the August deadline, markets price in significant uncertainty about timeline. The contract structure shows traders expect the committee process to extend beyond summer—the January 2027 outcome sits at 57%, suggesting most probability mass falls in fall 2026. Key drivers include the current pace of committee scheduling, typical confirmation timelines for attorney general nominees, and any procedural delays. The next concrete milestone would be the actual committee markup session date, which would either accelerate or defer the reporting timeline. Political dynamics and competing legislative priorities could also shift urgency.

Key factors:
- Committee markup date has not been publicly announced as of mid-June 2026, creating substantial timeline uncertainty
- Historical attorney general confirmations typically require 2-4 months from committee vote to full Senate vote, suggesting fall 2026 is the baseline scenario
- The 26-point probability gap between the August deadline (21%) and September deadline (47%) indicates markets expect mid-to-late August committee action at earliest
- Competing Senate priorities and recess schedules in summer months would mechanically delay markup beyond the August 1 cutoff
- Market pricing concentrates around January 2027 (57%) rather than near-term dates, suggesting expectations of extended process with possible delays

Contracts:
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 65¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T02:20:50.116Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/blanchejudiciary-27
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20the%20Senate%20Judiciary%20Committee%20reports%20Todd%20Blanche's%20nomination%20to%20be%20U.S.%20Attorney%20General%20to%20the%20full%20Senate%20before%20Aug%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev