35% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 22:58:04 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This question asks whether the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing for, or vote to report, a district-court or U.S. attorney nominee from a state where the home-state senator hasn't submitted an affirmative blue slip by early 2029. The 18% probability reflects the traditional strength of the blue-slip custom, which has historically constrained judicial nominations from progressing without home-state senator support. The probability increases across the three time horizons (7% by 2027, 13% by 2028, 18% by 2029), suggesting modest expectations that this norm may erode over time. Key drivers include Senate dynamics around judicial confirmations, shifts in how both parties treat blue-slip practices, and whether court vacancies create political pressure to bypass traditional gatekeeping. The resolution depends on reported committee actions matching the specified criteria before January 1, 2029. Key factors: - Historical blue-slip enforcement: Senate Judiciary Committee has typically not advanced judicial nominations without affirmative blue slips, though recent administrations have occasionally tested these limits - Current Senate composition and majority party stance on judicial nominations: Whether the majority views blue slips as binding custom versus advisory practice - Number and visibility of available vacancies in federal judiciary: Fewer urgent vacancies reduce pressure to bypass nomination procedures - Precedent from 2017-2021 and subsequent years: Observable pattern of whether committees held hearings or voted despite missing blue slips - Political calendar and nomination pace: Slower nomination throughput reduces probability of encountering blue-slip disputes by January 2029 Contracts: - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T07:20:51.213Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/blueslip-26 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20the%20Senate%20Judiciary%20Committee%20holds%20a%20hearing%20for%2C%20or%20votes%20to%20report%2C%20a%20district-court%20or%20U.S.-attorney%20nomination%20associated%20with%20a%20state%20where%20a%20sitting%20home-state%20senator%20has%20not%20returned%20an%20affirmative%20blue%20slip%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev