91% — Will BNB trimmed mean be above $610.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $600.00 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 8 contracts · $111 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:32:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates an 80% probability that BNB's trimmed mean price will exceed $610 by year-end 2026, based on current market pricing. The high confidence reflects traders' expectations of sustained strength in the Binance token through December, though the 11% drop from the $600 threshold suggests meaningful uncertainty about further upside. Primary drivers include BNB's correlation with broader crypto market conditions, regulatory developments affecting Binance, and institutional adoption trends. The main uncertainty resolves through December 31, 2026, when the year-end average is calculated. Currently, markets price only an 11% chance of BNB reaching $640 by year-end, indicating traders expect consolidation rather than explosive growth from current levels. Trading volume remains modest across these contracts, which may affect price efficiency and create opportunities for informed positions.

Key factors:
- BNB traded near $610-$620 on July 23, 2026; the $610 contract at 80¢ implies markets see a 20% probability of year-end prices falling below this level
- A $30 spread between the $600 contract (91¢) and the $640 contract (11¢) shows conviction that BNB will settle in a narrow band rather than appreciate significantly over five months
- Binance regulatory status and any enforcement actions between July and December 2026 would materially impact BNB demand and network activity
- The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme daily values, reducing impact of flash crashes or manipulation, but still depends on actual December 2026 trading levels
- Crypto market-wide sentiment shifts, including Federal Reserve policy or institutional capital flows, would directly influence whether BNB maintains support above $610

Contracts:
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $600.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $600.00 — 91¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 14%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $610.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $610.00 — 79¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 48%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $620.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $620.00 — 56¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 37%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $630.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $630.00 — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $640.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $640.00 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $650.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $650.00 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $660.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $660.00 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will BNB trimmed mean be above $670.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $670.00 — 5¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.550Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bnbmaxy-bnb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20BNB%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%24610.00%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev