8% — Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond Kalshi 8% · 13 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 16:17:09 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 9% probability that Jacob Elordi will be cast as the next James Bond, reflecting current speculation about who will replace the current actor. The casting represents one of Hollywood's most anticipated decisions, with studios typically waiting years between Bond films before announcing a successor. Elordi's probability sits in the middle tier of candidates—significantly lower than frontrunner Callum Turner at 45%, but higher than several other contenders. The main drivers of this probability are Elordi's age, acting experience, and whether he matches the studio's desired direction for the character. Major catalysts that would shift this market include official casting announcements from producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson, interviews where these producers discuss their shortlist, or significant changes in Elordi's career trajectory. Until an official decision is made public, probabilities across all candidates will fluctuate based on media speculation, industry reporting, and perceived fit with the franchise's future direction. Key factors: - Callum Turner's 45% probability indicates strongest consensus candidate; Elordi's 17¢ contract price suggests meaningful but not primary consideration compared to top choice - Trading volume on Elordi contract ($141 24h) is lower than Turner's ($1231), indicating less market confidence or activity around this specific option - No official timeline exists for next Bond announcement; casting typically occurs years after previous film's release, leaving substantial uncertainty period - Elordi's filmography and perceived fit with producers' vision would need to emerge through credible industry reporting or official statements to materially move probability - Age and career momentum matter significantly—competitors like Turner may be perceived as closer matches to historically preferred Bond casting profiles Contracts: - Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?: Callum Turner — 29¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 78%) - Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?: Jacob Elordi — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%) - Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?: Aaron Pierre — 8¢ Kalshi $261 (weight 3%) - Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson — 16¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 1%) - Will Theo James be the next James Bond?: Theo James — 7¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 1%) - Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?: Henry Cavill — 4¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 1%) - Will Damson Idris be the next James Bond?: Damson Idris — 4¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 0%) - Will James Norton be the next James Bond?: James Norton — 4¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T15:20:49.534Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bond Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jacob%20Elordi%20be%20the%20next%20James%20Bond Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev