9% — Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond Kalshi 9% · 11 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:37 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that Jacob Elordi will be cast as the next James Bond actor when the role is next filled. The 13% aggregate probability reflects modest confidence in Elordi as a candidate among competing actors. Elordi's youth, acting credentials, and physical profile align with typical Bond casting criteria, supporting his consideration in the talent pool. However, the 11-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests uncertainty about his odds relative to other candidates like Callum Turner (44¢ on Kalshi). The primary catalyst for resolution is an official casting announcement from EON Productions, which typically occurs years before a film release. Until then, market participants are pricing in Elordi's candidacy based on public speculation, Hollywood insiders' commentary, and his career trajectory. The relative illiquidity across venues (most contracts under $1,000 daily volume) indicates limited market attention to this specific outcome. Key factors: - Callum Turner trades significantly higher (44¢) than Elordi (3-6¢), suggesting Polymarket and Kalshi participants view Turner as a stronger candidate - No official casting announcement has been made by EON Productions; current prices reflect pre-announcement speculation with substantial uncertainty - Elordi's recent filmography and public profile relative to competing actors will influence perceived suitability for the role among market participants - The timing of the next Bond film's pre-production and casting window is not yet confirmed, affecting how soon this market resolves - Cross-venue probability gap of 11 percentage points indicates materially different assessments or trading behaviors between Kalshi and Polymarket participants Contracts: - Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?: Jacob Elordi — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 25%) - Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?: Callum Turner — 43¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 21%) - Will Theo James be the next James Bond?: Theo James — 3¢ Kalshi $693 (weight 11%) - Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson — 8¢ Kalshi $686 (weight 11%) - Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?: Aaron Pierre — 4¢ Kalshi $624 (weight 10%) - Will Harris Dickinson be the next James Bond?: Harris Dickinson — 3¢ Kalshi $616 (weight 10%) - Will Jack Lowden be the next James Bond?: Jack Lowden — 3¢ Kalshi $521 (weight 8%) - Will James Norton be the next James Bond?: James Norton — 3¢ Kalshi $281 (weight 4%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.039Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bond Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jacob%20Elordi%20be%20the%20next%20James%20Bond Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev