47% — Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar
Leader: Bosnia and Herzegovina at 47% · Polymarket 47% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Bosnia and Herzegovina will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The 33% median probability suggests bookmakers view Bosnia as the underdog, with Qatar favored despite Bosnia's recent competitive performances. The 6-percentage-point gap between venues indicates some disagreement about match dynamics, possibly reflecting different assessments of team form, injury status, or head-to-head records. The outcome depends on team composition, tactical setup, and match conditions on the day of play. Liquidity across contracts remains modest, suggesting limited trading activity and potential for probability shifts as the match date approaches and new information about team readiness emerges.

Key factors:
- Bosnia and Herzegovina's current FIFA ranking and recent match results against comparable opponents
- Qatar's home-field advantage status and performance record in competitive fixtures
- Injury reports or roster changes for either team in the weeks before the scheduled match
- Historical head-to-head results between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar
- Betting volume disparity between venues, indicating which market has stronger conviction in the pricing

Contracts:
- Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia and Herzegovina — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar — 38¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw (Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar) — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Bosnia%20and%20Herzegovina%20vs.%20Qatar
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev