41% — Boston Legacy FC vs. Denver Summit FC
Kalshi 42% · 13 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 14:48:24 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 38% probability that Boston Legacy FC will defeat Denver Summit FC in an upcoming match. The probability is anchored by aggregated contract data from two venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher at 39% versus Kalshi's 37%. Boston Legacy FC would need to overcome Denver Summit FC's apparent competitive positioning to win, which investors assess as occurring less than four times out of ten. The narrow 2-percentage-point gap between venues suggests reasonable market consensus, though the relatively low trading volume on the direct matchup contract ($60 in 24-hour volume) indicates limited liquidity and potential for repricing as the event approaches. Key outcomes that could shift the probability include roster changes, recent performance trends, head-to-head historical records, and venue or weather conditions on match day.

Key factors:
- Direct matchup contract shows Denver Summit FC at 33 cents on Kalshi, implying ~67% probability for Denver, which contradicts the 38% aggregated Boston probability—suggesting possible data inconsistency or that aggregation includes different event types
- 24-hour trading volume on the Boston vs. Denver contract is only $60, indicating thin liquidity and susceptibility to repricing with new information
- Polymarket prices Denver at 61 cents (39% Boston) while Kalski prices it at 63 cents (37% Boston), showing cross-venue consensus but with notable contract distribution across separate matchups rather than direct head-to-head volume
- No scheduled match date or time is specified in available data, making it unclear whether the event is imminent or weeks away—affecting information arrival and probability stability
- The market data mixes unrelated contracts (Boston Breach vs. OpTic Texas series) alongside the Boston Legacy vs. Denver Summit query, raising questions about which underlying event drives the aggregated probability

Contracts:
- Will Boston Breach win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%)
- Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates — 84¢ Kalshi $294 (weight 11%)
- Will Paris Gentle Mates win map 2 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates — 57¢ Kalshi $290 (weight 11%)
- Will Boston Breach win map 1 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach — 12¢ Kalshi $247 (weight 10%)
- Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Denver Summit FC — 33¢ Kalshi $198 (weight 10%)
- Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps — 53¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 9%)
- Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Tie — 27¢ Kalshi $97 (weight 9%)
- Will Boston Breach win map 2 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach — 35¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 8%)
- ... and 5 more

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Boston%20Legacy%20FC%20vs.%20Denver%20Summit%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev