36% — Boston Legacy FC vs. Denver Summit FC - More Markets
Polymarket 37% · Kalshi 38% · 19 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:30:15 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Boston Legacy FC will win their matchup against Denver Summit FC. The 35% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price Boston's chances at 24%, while Polymarket traders estimate 39%, a 15-percentage-point gap suggesting uncertainty about team strength or upcoming match conditions. The contract volume is notably thin across most markets, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will be determined on the scheduled game date. Factors like recent team performance, roster changes, head-to-head history, and venue conditions would typically influence such estimates, though current market depth is insufficient for high confidence in either direction.

Key factors:
- Polymarket prices Boston's win probability 15pp higher than Kalshi, suggesting disagreement on valuation or access to different information sources
- The Denver Summit FC winner contract on Kalshi trades at 33¢ (implying ~67% Denver probability), creating apparent inconsistency with the 35% Boston aggregate
- Most secondary markets show zero 24-hour volume, indicating thin liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency
- Draw probability is explicitly priced at 27¢ on Polymarket, suggesting material tie likelihood that may not be fully reflected in win-only contracts
- The Boston Breach unrelated contract has $3,102 daily volume while Boston Legacy contracts show $60 or $0, indicating these teams operate in different liquidity tiers

Contracts:
- Will Boston Breach win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%)
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) — 3¢ Polymarket $306 (weight 7%)
- Will Paris Gentle Mates win the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Paris Gentle Mates — 84¢ Kalshi $295 (weight 7%)
- Will Boston Breach win map 1 in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates match?: Boston Breach — 12¢ Kalshi $247 (weight 7%)
- Boston Legacy FC vs Denver Summit FC Winner?: Denver Summit FC — 33¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 7%)
- FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) — 32¢ Polymarket $206 (weight 7%)
- FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) — 53¢ Polymarket $204 (weight 7%)
- Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps — 53¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 6%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Boston%20Legacy%20FC%20vs.%20Denver%20Summit%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev