45% — Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage
Kalshi 45% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 15:17:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood of a specific outcome in North Carolina's 2026 elections, based on aggregated market data from multiple contracts. The current assessment sits near the middle ground, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about Democratic performance in the state. The probability is primarily driven by polling data, historical voting patterns, and assessments of candidate viability. Factors pushing the probability higher include demographic trends and recent Democratic organizational efforts, while factors pushing it lower reflect North Carolina's competitive nature and Republican strengths in certain regions. The resolution of this uncertainty will depend on actual election results in November 2026, which represents the key catalyst that will determine the final outcome and eliminate remaining market speculation.

Key factors:
- Current polling averages in North Carolina compared to national Democratic performance trends
- Voter registration data and demographic shifts in key counties that have shown movement toward or away from Democratic candidates
- Candidate quality and campaign infrastructure, including fundraising and ground organization metrics
- Historical margin patterns in statewide North Carolina races over the past three election cycles
- Election date of November 2026 serves as the definitive resolution point when actual vote totals replace all probabilistic forecasting

Contracts:
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper — 86¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 55%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 42¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 45%)
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party — 68¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T14:20:51.148Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev