45% — Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets Kalshi 45% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-24 15:33:30 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the current market assessment of Democratic performance in North Carolina's 2026 Senate race, positioned at 45% based on aggregated contract pricing. The market is pricing in competitive dynamics in a state that has become increasingly contested between parties. Key drivers of this probability include candidate quality and name recognition—particularly Roy Cooper's strong positioning at 85 cents suggests market confidence in the Democratic nominee—as well as broader national political momentum heading into the election cycle. Turnout patterns and suburban voter preferences in North Carolina will likely prove decisive. The primary elections and candidate nominations will serve as critical checkpoints, with the general election campaign intensity ramping up through fall 2026. Resolution will depend on actual vote tallies in November 2026. Key factors: - Roy Cooper Senate contract prices at 85¢ indicate high market confidence in the Democratic nominee's viability compared to the lower 45¢ aggregate probability - Margin-of-victory contracts show sharp probability drops (30¢ for 11+ points, 24¢ for 13+ points), suggesting markets expect a close race rather than a decisive outcome - The 37¢ probability on Democrats winning Senate seats in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina AND Maine indicates the market views a North Carolina Democratic win as less likely than the 45% standalone figure, reflecting competitive headwinds - Democratic gubernatorial contract at 65¢ shows higher confidence in state-level Democratic performance than Senate performance, suggesting candidate-specific or race-specific factors are suppressing Senate odds - 24-hour trading volumes are minimal on margin contracts and near-zero on some positions, indicating limited recent price discovery and potential for significant repricing as election approaches Contracts: - Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper — 86¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 57%) - Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 42¢ Kalshi $950 (weight 43%) - Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party — 68¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-24T15:20:48.909Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Boston%20Legacy%20FC%20vs.%20North%20Carolina%20Courage%20-%20More%20Markets Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev