45% — Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Kalshi 45% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 15:17:32 UTC

Why this matters:
This market is asking whether Boston Legacy FC and North Carolina Courage will score more than 2.5 combined goals in their match. The 40% probability reflects moderate expectations for a relatively low-scoring outcome. The significant 26-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests different assessments of these teams' offensive capabilities and defensive strength. Historical matchup data, recent team form, and player availability would typically influence such forecasts. The resolution depends entirely on the final goal count when these teams play, making current team lineups and match conditions the primary drivers of probability shifts before kickoff.

Key factors:
- Recent goal-scoring records for both Boston Legacy FC and North Carolina Courage in their last 5-10 matches
- Historical head-to-head results between these specific teams, including average goals per match
- Current injury status or roster changes affecting key offensive or defensive players for either squad
- Weather conditions and field state on match day, which can impact pace of play and scoring likelihood
- Kalshi's substantially higher probability (42%) versus Polymarket (16%) suggests divergent data sources or modeling assumptions that should be reconciled

Contracts:
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper — 86¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 55%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 42¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 45%)
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party — 68¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T14:20:51.582Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets-ou
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Boston%20Legacy%20FC%20vs.%20North%20Carolina%20Courage%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20O%2FU%202.5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev