49% — La Velada del Año VI
Kalshi 49% · 6 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 20:08:13 UTC

Why this matters:
La Velada del Año VI is a Spanish-language boxing event featuring multiple matchups. The 30% probability reflects uncertainty about whether the event will occur as currently scheduled. The main contracts track high-profile fights including Mayweather vs. Pacquiao and Canelo vs. Mbilli, with trading volume concentrated on the heavyweight matchups. The probability is driven by factors including event confirmation status, fighter availability, and scheduling. Market participants are pricing in meaningful doubt about execution, as evidenced by moderate volume and dispersed contract prices. Resolution will depend on official announcement of the event date and final fight card confirmation from organizers.

Key factors:
- Trading volume is concentrated on Mayweather-Pacquiao and Canelo-Mbilli contracts, indicating market focus on marquee fights rather than the overall event viability
- Kalshi contract prices show Mayweather favored at 65¢ over Pacquiao at 37¢, and Canelo heavily favored at 76¢ over Mbilli at 23¢, suggesting conditional probability factors into event-level assessment
- The IlloJuan vs TheGrefg contract trades with minimal volume ($15 24h), indicating lower market interest in secondary matchups
- Aggregate 30% probability suggests roughly 70% market confidence in the event occurring, with execution risk as the primary uncertainty
- As of July 2026, the event status and official date confirmation would be the most material catalyst for near-term probability movement

Contracts:
- Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn Winner?: Conor Benn — 30¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 39%)
- Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn Winner?: Ryan Garcia — 69¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 25%)
- Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner?: Manny Pacquiao — 31¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%)
- Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: Canelo Alvarez — 68¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner?: Floyd Mayweather Jr. — 68¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: Christian Mbilli — 30¢ Kalshi $383 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T19:20:48.949Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boxing
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=La%20Velada%20del%20A%C3%B1o%20VI
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev