39% — La Velada del Año VI Kalshi 39% · 20 contracts · $196K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:39 UTC Why this matters: La Velada del Año VI is a boxing/fighting event featuring multiple scheduled matches. The 40% probability represents the current market expectation that Viruzz will defeat Gero Arias in their matchup, one of several bouts on the card. This probability reflects trader assessments of fighter skill, recent performance, and public betting patterns across available contracts. The market shows meaningful uncertainty: Gero Arias has near-equal pricing at 30¢, indicating traders view the matchup as competitive rather than one-sided. Other featured bouts (Sevillano vs La Parce, Plex vs Fernanfloo, IlloJuan vs TheGrefg) carry different odds, suggesting independent evaluation of each fight. The relatively low trading volume on the Gero-Viruzz contract ($2 in 24h volume) indicates limited liquidity, which may amplify price movements as new information or late betting emerges. Key drivers of probability shifts would include fighter injury reports, recent sparring footage, or public statements affecting perceived readiness before the event date. Key factors: - Gero Arias contract trades at 30¢ (60% implied probability), creating near-parity with Viruzz's 40¢, suggesting traders assess this matchup as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favoring either fighter - Low 24-hour volume ($2) on the Gero-Virusz contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity, making the 40% price potentially sensitive to new information or larger trades - Top-volume contract (Sevillano vs La Parce at $46 24h vol) shows uneven market attention across event bouts; relative disinterest in some fights may reflect differences in fighter prominence or perceived predictability - No scheduled event date provided in available data; proximity to the event and confirmation of fighter participation would be standard resolution drivers - The 13% probability for TheGrefg against IlloJuan suggests substantial variance in expected competitive balance across the card's different matchups Contracts: - Xander Zayas vs Jaron Ennis Winner?: Xander Zayas — 26¢ Kalshi $100K (weight 51%) - Xander Zayas vs Jaron Ennis Winner?: Jaron Ennis — 75¢ Kalshi $77K (weight 39%) - Ben Whittaker vs Richard Rivera Winner?: Richard Rivera — 8¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 3%) - Emiliano Vargas vs Bryce Mills Winner?: Bryce Mills — 12¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 2%) - Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: Canelo Alvarez — 76¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 2%) - Ben Whittaker vs Richard Rivera Winner?: Ben Whittaker — 91¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%) - Emiliano Vargas vs Bryce Mills Winner?: Emiliano Vargas — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 1%) - Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner?: Manny Pacquiao — 38¢ Kalshi $994 (weight 1%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.026Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/boxing Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=La%20Velada%20del%20A%C3%B1o%20VI Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev