96% — Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units
Leader: Above 950 units at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 6 contracts · $949 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-24 03:19:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an 86% chance that Bozeman, Montana's building permit authorizations for new housing will exceed 1,100 units in 2026, with notably lower probabilities for higher thresholds (21% for 1,400+ units). This reflects expectations around regional housing demand, construction capacity, and local permitting trends in a market that has experienced significant growth pressure. The probability is driven by recent construction activity levels and typical seasonal variation in permit issuance, balanced against potential supply constraints or economic headwinds that could dampen building activity. Resolution depends on final 2026 permit data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, typically released in early 2027, which will show the actual count of residential units authorized across the Bozeman CBSA during the calendar year.

Key factors:
- Year-to-date 2026 permit authorizations through mid-August compared to full-year historical averages for the Bozeman CBSA
- Recent annual housing permit volume trends in the region—whether 2023-2025 averaged above or below 1,100-1,400 unit thresholds
- Inventory of approved but not-yet-permitted projects and typical seasonal concentration of permit issuance in Bozeman-area jurisdictions
- Economic indicators affecting regional construction: mortgage rates, lending standards, and employment growth in the Bozeman area
- Local zoning or permitting policy changes implemented in 2026 that would accelerate or constrain new residential authorizations

Contracts:
- Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?: Above 950 units — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?: Above 1,100 units — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?: Above 1,250 units — 79¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 5%)
- Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?: Above 1,400 units — 32¢ Kalshi $899 (weight 95%)
- Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?: Above 1,550 units — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,700 units?: Above 1,700 units — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-24T02:20:49.932Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/bozpermits
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20new%20privately%20owned%20housing%20units%20authorized%20by%20building%20permits%20in%20the%20Bozeman%2C%20MT%20CBSA%20in%202026%20be%20above%201%2C400%20units
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev