48% — Will both teams score
Leader: Both Teams To Score at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 13:41:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal in an upcoming match. The current 50% estimate is derived from multiple Kalshi contracts, though individual contract prices range from 35¢ to 51¢, indicating meaningful disagreement among traders. The probability depends primarily on the defensive capabilities of each team and recent scoring patterns, with stronger defenses and lower-scoring teams making both-teams-to-score outcomes less likely. Major factors that could shift this probability include team lineups (particularly availability of key attacking or defensive players), weather conditions, and the specific matchup dynamics. Once the match concludes, the outcome becomes definitively known based on whether each team scores at least once during regulation play.

Key factors:
- Historical scoring frequency for each team this season, including percentage of matches where they both scored and conceded
- Quality and recent form of each team's defense, particularly goals conceded per match over the last 5-10 games
- Availability of key attacking players for both teams, as injuries or suspensions significantly affect scoring likelihood
- Head-to-head history between these specific teams, if applicable, showing scoring patterns in previous matchups
- Current league-wide average for both-teams-to-score outcomes as a baseline comparison for this specific matchup

Contracts:
- Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will both teams score?: Both Teams To Score — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.510Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brasileirobbtts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20both%20teams%20score
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev