43% — Will Chapecoense SC record the first goal of the game
Kalshi 43% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 09:12:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This 40% probability reflects the current market assessment that Chapecoense SC will score the opening goal in their upcoming match against Coritiba FC PR. The market is pricing this as slightly below even odds, suggesting Coritiba is favored to score first based on factors like relative team form, offensive capability, or home-field advantage. The probability will be resolved when the match concludes and the first goal is officially recorded. Key drivers of the current level likely include recent goal-scoring records of both teams, head-to-head historical patterns, and lineup strength. The match kickoff represents the singular catalyst that will eliminate all uncertainty around this outcome.

Key factors:
- Chapecoense's recent goal-scoring rate in opening phases of matches compared to historical baseline
- Coritiba's offensive production statistics and conversion efficiency, particularly early in matches
- Head-to-head historical data on which team has scored first in previous matchups
- Team lineup availability, injuries to key attacking players, or recent tactical adjustments
- Venue location (home/away) and any historical correlation to first-goal advantage for either side

Contracts:
- Will CR Vasco da Gama RJ record the first goal of the game?: CR Vasco da Gama RJ — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Mirassol FC SP record the first goal of the game?: Mirassol FC SP — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will SC Corinthians SP record the first goal of the game?: SC Corinthians SP — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Clube do Remo PA record the first goal of the game?: Clube do Remo PA — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will Botafogo FR RJ record the first goal of the game?: Botafogo FR RJ — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will EC Vitoria BA record the first goal of the game?: EC Vitoria BA — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T01:20:51.389Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brasileiroftts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chapecoense%20SC%20record%20the%20first%20goal%20of%20the%20game
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev