48% — Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%
Leader: 1.9%–2.2% at 48% · Polymarket 48% · 2 contracts · $720 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:08:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 21% probability that Brazil's GDP grew between 1.9% and 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The low probability reflects expectations for stronger growth, driven by Brazil's recent economic momentum and accommodative monetary policy. The significant 13-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about growth trajectory, with Kalshi traders pricing in higher odds of this mid-range outcome. The resolution will depend on official GDP data released by Brazil's statistical agency (typically in early June), which measures actual quarterly growth. Key variables include commodity price movements affecting export demand, agricultural production, domestic consumption trends, and currency stability relative to the US dollar.

Key factors:
- Brazil's official Q1 2026 GDP release date and preliminary estimates from the statistical agency will directly determine the outcome
- Recent quarterly growth rates and trend momentum in late 2025 establish the baseline for expectations about Q1 acceleration or deceleration
- Commodity prices and exchange rates during Q1 2026 materially affect export competitiveness and import costs for Brazilian producers
- The 13-percentage-point probability gap between exchanges indicates material disagreement about whether growth falls into this specific band versus adjacent ranges (lower or higher)
- Central bank policy decisions and credit conditions through Q1 2026 influence consumer and business spending patterns

Contracts:
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2% — 48¢ Polymarket $540 (weight 75%)
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.5%–1.8% — 37¢ Polymarket $180 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-31T13:20:12.931Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brazil-gdp-growth-q1
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Brazil%20GDP%20Growth%20in%20Q1%202026%3F%3A%201.9%25%E2%80%932.2%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev