88% — Brazil vs. Haiti
Leader: Brazil at 88% · Polymarket 88% · 3 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 35% probability reflects market expectations for Brazil to defeat Haiti in an upcoming match. The assessment sits between two major venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher than Kalshi, suggesting some disagreement about Brazil's chances despite their significant global ranking advantage. Brazil's performance history, squad depth, and home-field conditions typically favor them heavily against Haiti, yet the market hasn't priced this as a near-certain outcome. The key driver of movement would be team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical shifts—appearing closer to match day, along with any head-to-head historical patterns or recent form updates that alter baseline expectations.

Key factors:
- Brazil holds a substantial FIFA ranking advantage over Haiti, yet the market prices this outcome below 50%, indicating either perceived vulnerability in Brazil's current form or uncertainty about match conditions
- Polymarket contracts show 3 percentage points higher probability than Kalshi, with asymmetric trading volume concentrated on Brazil-Morocco outcomes rather than direct Haiti engagement
- Haiti's implied win probability of 28% on Morocco-Haiti markets suggests some heterogeneity in how the team is being priced across different matchup structures
- Top trading volume concentrates on the Brazil-Morocco contract ($261 24h), not Haiti-Brazil directly, meaning Haiti pricing may reflect derivative inference rather than direct institutional attention
- The absence of volume on certain Haiti contracts ($0 24h) indicates thin liquidity and potential for repricing if new information surfaces about team availability or conditions

Contracts:
- Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil — 88¢ Polymarket $717 (weight 7%)
- Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti — 8¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 87%)
- Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw (Brazil vs. Haiti) — 7¢ Polymarket $586 (weight 6%)

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brazil-vs-haiti
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Brazil%20vs.%20Haiti
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev