46% — Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027
Kalshi 46% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:30 UTC

Why this matters:
This 45% probability represents a forecast that Brazilian year-over-year GDP growth will exceed a specific threshold in February 2027. The current assessment reflects mixed economic signals: Brazil's recent quarterly growth has ranged between 1.5–1.9% annually, and the market is pricing in roughly even odds for stronger versus weaker performance ahead. Key drivers include monetary policy decisions by Brazil's central bank, inflation trajectory, and external commodity price movements affecting export demand. The February 2027 GDP release—scheduled by Brazil's statistics agency (IBGE) for late March 2027—will definitively resolve this forecast. Until then, traders are monitoring real interest rate expectations, currency stability, and incoming labor market data as leading indicators of growth momentum.

Key factors:
- Q2 2026 Brazilian GDP growth has been tracking in the 1.5–1.9% YoY range based on available high-frequency data and consensus expectations
- Central bank policy stance: higher real interest rates (currently around 10.5% nominal) are expected to moderate growth in H2 2026, creating downward pressure
- External demand and commodity prices remain volatile; a sustained decline in agricultural or energy prices could weigh on Q4 2026/Q1 2027 growth
- The IBGE will release February 2027 GDP figures in late March 2027, providing the definitive outcome; preliminary indicators arrive weeks earlier
- Real exchange rate depreciation could boost exports but reflects underlying inflation concerns that may constrain domestic demand

Contracts:
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5% — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6% — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.7%?: Above 1.7% — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.8%?: Above 1.8% — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9% — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0% — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q2 2026 be above 2.1%?: Above 2.1% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027?: Above 0.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.133Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brazilgdp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Brazilian%20GDP%20(YoY)%20in%20Feb%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev