95% — Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in April 2026 Leader: Above 4.20% at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 20 contracts · $102 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:15 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that Brazil's year-over-year CPI inflation will exceed 4.0% when measured through April 2026. The current 65% probability reflects recent inflation dynamics in Brazil, where the Central Bank has been managing price pressures through monetary policy adjustments. The main drivers include currency fluctuations against the US dollar, which affect import costs, and domestic demand conditions. Market pricing shows significant uncertainty around the 4.0% threshold—contracts betting on inflation above 3.6% trade much higher than those above 4.0%—suggesting sentiment clusters around the 3.6-3.8% range. The resolution will depend on actual CPI data released by Brazil's statistics agency, with the official April 2026 inflation figures providing the definitive outcome. Real-time factors include commodity price movements, labor market conditions, and the Central Bank's interest-rate decisions through early 2026. Key factors: - The 4.0% contract trades at only 3 cents versus 64 cents for the 3.6% threshold, indicating market expectation that inflation settles in the 3.6-3.8% band rather than exceeding 4.0% - Brazil's currency strength or weakness versus the dollar directly impacts import prices and inflation; recent volatility in the real creates uncertainty about the exact inflation trajectory - The Central Bank's policy rate decisions between now and April 2026 will significantly influence inflation expectations and actual price growth - Commodity price movements, particularly oil and agricultural products, are key drivers of Brazilian inflation given export-dependent sectors - Official CPI data will be released by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) in early May 2026, providing the definitive resolution figure Contracts: - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.20% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.20% — 95¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 98%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.40% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.40% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.30% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.30% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.50% — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in May 2026?: Above 4.50% — 70¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.60% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.60% — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.30% in Jun 2026?: Above 4.30% — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.70% in Jul 2026?: Above 4.70% — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.687Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brazilinf Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20inflation%20in%20Brazil%20be%20above%204.00%25%20in%20April%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev