63% — Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election
Kalshi 63% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:53:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates market participants believe there is roughly a two-in-three chance that Renan Santos will appear on the ballot for Brazil's next presidential election. The current 66% level reflects uncertainty about whether legal or regulatory obstacles might prevent his candidacy. Key drivers include his eligibility status under Brazilian electoral law, any pending legal judgments that could affect his candidacy, and decisions by Brazil's electoral authorities regarding registration deadlines. Resolution will depend on formal candidate registration and certification by the Superior Electoral Court, which typically occurs in the months immediately preceding a presidential election. The exact timing depends on when Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled.

Key factors:
- Renan Santos' current legal eligibility status under Brazilian electoral code provisions
- Any pending court rulings or decisions regarding disqualification grounds in the relevant timeframe
- Whether Renan Santos submits candidacy registration documents to electoral authorities by required deadlines
- Certification decisions by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court on candidate qualification
- Changes in Brazilian electoral law or jurisprudence affecting eligibility criteria between now and election registration

Contracts:
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 98%)
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?: Flávio Bolsonaro — 73¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%)
- Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?: Jair Bolsonaro — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?: Renan Santos — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.306Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brballot
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Renan%20Santos%20be%20on%20the%20ballot%20in%20the%20next%20Brazilian%20presidential%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev