96% — Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90  USD/Bbl on Apr 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: above $88.50 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 20 contracts · $39K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88.50  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $88.50 — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $90 — 94¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 89.50  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $89.50 — 93¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90.50  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $90.50 — 93¢ Kalshi $834 (weight 2%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $91 — 85¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.50  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $91.50 — 81¢ Kalshi $514 (weight 1%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $92 — 78¢ Kalshi $609 (weight 2%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92.50  USD/Bbl on May 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $92.50 — 74¢ Kalshi $808 (weight 2%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T07:20:12.698Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brentd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20brent%20crude%20oil%20close%20price%20be%20above%2090%20%20USD%2FBbl%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev