92% — Will the brent crude oil close price be above $90.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: above $88.99 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 11 contracts · $51K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $88.99 — 92¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 15%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $90.99 — 77¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 34%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $92.99 — 40¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 18%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 104.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $104.99 — 15¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 3%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 94.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $94.99 — 14¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 10%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 106.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $106.99 — 7¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 8%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 96.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $96.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 9%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-30T07:20:12.459Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brentmon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20brent%20crude%20oil%20close%20price%20be%20above%20%2490.99%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev