97% — Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99  USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: above $87.99 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 12 contracts · $27K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $87.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $85.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $56 (weight 0%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $81.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $89.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 71.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $71.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $618 (weight 2%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $91.99 — 89¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $93.99 — 69¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 31%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $95.99 — 40¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 14%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-05T19:20:12.252Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brentw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20brent%20crude%20oil%20close%20price%20be%20above%2085.99%20%20USD%2FBbl%20on%20Apr%2024%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev