18% — Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections Kalshi 18% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 09:38:39 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether the PSD party will win at least one gubernatorial seat in each of Brazil's 27 jurisdictions (26 states plus the Federal District) after the October 2026 elections. The 26% probability reflects that achieving representation across all 27 regions simultaneously is a high bar for any single party. The PSD's current standing, regional strength variations, and competitive dynamics with rival parties like PL and União Progressista drive this assessment. The October 2026 election results will definitively resolve whether the party achieves this geographic sweep, making pre-election polling and PSD performance in early contests key indicators of movement in this probability. Key factors: - PSD's current regional presence and whether it has competitive candidates in all 27 jurisdictions heading into October 2026 - Historical precedent: whether any party has previously won at least one seat in all 27 Brazilian governorships simultaneously - Fragmentation among PSD's competitors and whether vote-splitting reduces PSD's ability to win in competitive regions - The electoral strength of rival parties (PL at 21¢ and União Progressista at 27¢) in overlapping regions where PSD needs coverage - Early election indicators between now and October 2026, including primary results, coalition dynamics, and regional polling shifts Contracts: - Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: PL — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: PSD — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: União Progressista — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:49.819Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brgovmostseats Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20PSD%20hold%201%20seats%20in%20all%2027%20Brazilian%20governorships%20(the%2026%20states%20and%20the%20Federal%20District)%2C%20counted%20together%20as%20a%20single%20aggregate%20body%20for%20purposes%20of%20this%20Contract%20after%20the%202026%20Brazilian%20gubernatorial%20elections Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev