95% — Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.50%
Leader: Above 4.75% at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 9 contracts · $71 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:31:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The probability reflects market expectations that Brazil's inflation rate will exceed 4.50% over the next six months, with declining confidence at higher thresholds. Markets currently price in very high certainty (96%) that inflation stays above 4.50%, moderate confidence (94%) above 4.75%, and substantially lower conviction above 5.50%. Inflation trajectories are driven by monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank, currency depreciation effects on import costs, and domestic demand pressures. The Central Bank's interest rate decisions and inflation data releases through year-end 2026 will be critical in determining whether inflation accelerates beyond current forecasts or moderates toward the 4.50% threshold that most traders expect to be breached.

Key factors:
- Current year-to-date Brazilian inflation and the Central Bank's stated inflation target corridor for 2026-2027
- Recent Central Bank interest rate decisions and forward guidance on policy rates through end of 2026
- Brazilian real exchange rate movements and their historical correlation with imported inflation
- Central Bank inflation forecast revisions from official monetary policy reports
- Distance between current official inflation data and the 4.50%, 4.75%, and 5.50% contract thresholds

Contracts:
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 4.75%?: Above 4.75% — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00% — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.50%?: Above 5.50% — 84¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 7%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.25%?: Above 5.25% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.75%?: Above 5.75% — 46¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 45%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.00%?: Above 6.00% — 33¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 48%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.25%?: Above 6.25% — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.50%?: Above 6.50% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.202Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/brinfhigh
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brazil%20annual%20inflation%20rate%20before%202027%20be%20above%205.50%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev